Executive Summary:
- Greens continue to lead movement, holding within a healthy price range, while reds require increasingly aggressive pricing to clear inventories. Black seedless has reached a point of price inelasticity, where price reductions are no longer generating incremental demand.
- Promotional activity remains elevated, though below last season’s levels as expected. At the same time, promotional pricing continues trending lower than prior years, including last season.
- Combined import volume into the U.S. remains significantly below last year — over the last five weeks, arrivals are down approximately 37%, supporting tighter supply dynamics despite soft demand in certain colors.
- The East Coast continues to absorb the majority of volume from both origins. While Chile increased West Coast presence in Week 7, the shift was not material enough to alter overall distribution patterns.
- Despite greens still representing the largest share, green’s market share departures have declined from 63% five weeks ago to 49% last week, suggesting continued tightness ahead for greens and sustained pressure on reds.
- On origin progress, Peru has approximately 5% of its export program remaining, while Chile has shipped roughly 21% of its projected volume to date.
Market Dynamics:
- Pricing: Pricing continues along the same trend seen in previous weeks. Greens are moving along within a healthy price range, while all other colors are requiring more aggressive pricing to maintain movement.
| Region | Color | Lower-End Price | Higher-End Price | Dominant Variety |
| PE/CH | Greens | $32.00 | $42.00 | Autumn Crisp |
| PE/CH | Greens | $26.00 | $30.00 | Sweet Globe |
| PE/CH | Greens | $24.00 | $28.00 | Timpson, Ivory and Others |
| PE/CH | Reds | $24.00 | $28.00 | Jack’s Salute , Sweet Celebration |
| PE/CH | Reds | $20.00 | $26.00 | Allison, Timco and others |
| PE/CH | Blacks | $18.00 | $24.00 | Sweet Favors, Inia 1, Midnight Beauty |
- Promotional Activity: For the week of 2/13/26, the number of stores promoting grapes was predictably lower than last season, totaling 17,160 stores; however, this still represents a solid promotional footprint despite being below 2024 levels (20,061 stores) for the same week. In terms of promotional pricing, the lower price trend continues to solidify, with the current average at $2.60/lb, compared to $2.81/lb last season and $3.25/lb in 2024.
Supply Overview: Global Origins:
- Volume Shipped to all Markets + the US – Last 5 Weeks
- Volume Shipped to the US by Coast – Last 5 Weeks
- Volume Shipped to the US by Color – Last 5 Weeks
- Exported progress vs Forecast Balance
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About the Author
K
Keith Loria
A graduate of the University of Miami, Keith Loria is a D.C.-based award-winning journalist who has been writing for major publications for more than 20 years on topics as diverse as healthcare, travel, sports and produce.
