Apples Eyeing Strong Season

The U.S. apple industry entered the 2025–26 season with a sense of measured confidence, as growers anticipated another solid harvest and steady consumer demand. Total production is projected at roughly 278.5 million 42-pound bushel boxes, a modest increase from the previous season and slightly above the five-year average. While the gain is not dramatic, it reinforces the industry’s ability to maintain consistent output amid ongoing economic and operational pressures.

Washington State is once again expected to dominate national production, with an estimated crop near 180 million boxes. Favorable growing conditions and continued investment in orchard management have helped the state maintain its leadership position. In the East and Midwest, production levels are also holding steady. New York growers are forecast to harvest approximately 30.5 million boxes, close to long-term norms, while Michigan is projected to produce around 30 million boxes. 

Then there’s Pennsylvania, which is expected to harvest about 10.5 million bushels of apples this season. This level is close to last year’s crop and roughly in line with historical averages for the state’s output, with growers noting generally good fruit quality and sizing. For California, the fifth-highest apple producer, the forecast is approximately 3.8 million bushels for the season, with slightly higher output than the previous year as milder pre-harvest weather and good color and cleanliness in the crop support modest gains.

As the marketing season unfolds, the broader economic environment remains a key factor shaping outlooks for growers and retailers alike. Inflation, higher operating costs, and cautious consumer spending habits have led many buyers to be more value-conscious. Still, apples continue to benefit from their reputation as an affordable, healthy staple. Sales data from the early part of the season indicate that overall apple volumes have edged higher year over year, with dollar sales also showing modest gains, suggesting that consumers are still making room for apples in their grocery baskets even as budgets tighten.

Varietal performance continues to evolve. Honeycrisp remains the single largest driver of apple sales, accounting for nearly a quarter of total volume. However, the variety has faced some supply challenges this season, as production came in below early expectations. That tighter supply has translated into strong movement at retail, with available fruit selling quickly and remaining in high demand. Sales patterns show that consumers are purchasing Honeycrisp in both bulk and bag formats, reflecting its versatility across price points and merchandising strategies.

Gala continues to hold a strong position just behind Honeycrisp, while Granny Smith presents a mixed picture. Although crop size is larger this season, sales volume has softened slightly, pointing to an opportunity for renewed promotion and positioning. Pink Lady apples, by contrast, are gaining momentum at an impressive pace. With significantly higher volumes and strong visual appeal, the variety has climbed into the top tier of apples sold in the U.S., now representing a meaningful share of total category sales.

Within the club apple segment, Cosmic Crisp continues to stand out as the category leader. The variety now accounts for nearly half of all club apple sales nationwide and continues to gain share of total apple volume. Strong promotional support, expanding retail distribution, and consistent eating quality have helped drive both volume and dollar growth. In many markets, Cosmic Crisp has benefited from reduced availability of Honeycrisp, giving shoppers an appealing alternative with similar premium attributes. As a result, dollar sales have increased faster than volume, signaling strong pricing power and consumer acceptance.

Overall, U.S. apple sales have shown notable growth over the past year, supported by broader retail availability and increased consumer awareness of newer varieties. The number of stores carrying premium and club apples has continued to rise, further reinforcing the category’s visibility and performance at retail.

Looking ahead, industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. While production levels appear favorable and demand remains resilient, challenges such as labor availability, input costs, and shifting consumer expectations will continue to shape decision-making throughout the season. Even so, the combination of a stable crop, strong core varieties, and ongoing momentum in premium apples positions the U.S. apple industry for a productive and competitive 2025–26 season.