Treehouse California Almonds Reports Strong Global Demand Despite Middle East Uncertainty

Global demand for almonds remained strong in February, according to a market report from Treehouse California Almonds, even as geopolitical tensions and shifting trade conditions introduced new uncertainty to global markets.

The company’s February position analysis shows that total almond shipments reached 241.136 million pounds for the month, up from 214.932 million pounds in February 2025, an increase of 12.2 percent year over year. The stronger shipment pace suggests that demand for almonds continues to hold steady despite cautious purchasing patterns in many markets.

Buyers across the globe have largely maintained a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, securing product for near-term needs rather than extending coverage further forward. Still, the report indicates that almonds continue to move consistently through global supply channels.

Domestic shipments softened during the month. U.S. shipments totaled 45.028 million pounds, compared with 56.181 million pounds in February 2025, representing a decline of roughly 19.9 percent year over year. However, stronger export demand more than offset the slowdown in the domestic market.

Sales activity remained solid as well. New sales in February totaled 246.2 million pounds, representing 41.8 percent of January commitments. That figure exceeded the 220.8 million pounds recorded in February 2025 by about 26 million pounds, or 11.5 percent, marking a record for February sales.

Total commitments now stand at 593.4 million pounds, compared with 577.4 million pounds at this point last year, a gain of 2.8 percent. These commitments point toward a strong shipment month in March, although disruptions in the United Arab Emirates and rising shipping congestion could limit how much product ultimately moves.

According to the Treehouse California Almonds report, recent price corrections appear to reflect geopolitical uncertainty rather than weakening demand. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have created hesitation among some buyers and added volatility to trade flows, while logistical disruptions and higher freight costs have complicated shipments to parts of the region.

At the same time, selling pressure from call pool sellers working to liquidate undersold positions has contributed to near-term price softness. Despite this, underlying demand remains firm, with many buyers still largely uncovered for forward positions beginning in May. In recent days, more disciplined buyers have begun stepping into the market to take advantage of discounted offerings while positioning themselves ahead of potential stabilization in geopolitical conditions.

On the supply side, California reported an additional 52.8 million pounds of crop receipts during the month, bringing the net marketable crop to approximately 2.625 billion pounds. With most receipts now accounted for, the final net marketable crop is unlikely to exceed 2.7 billion pounds, providing greater clarity about the total available supply for the season.

At that level, the industry would need to maintain an average shipment pace of roughly 212 million pounds per month through July to keep carryout within a balanced range near 550 million pounds.

Several international markets posted notable gains during February.

India delivered one of the strongest performances, shipping 41.314 million pounds compared with 25.56 million pounds in February 2025, an increase of about 61.6 percent. Year-to-date shipments to India now stand at 213 million pounds, slightly behind the 221.4 million pounds shipped at this point last year, leaving the market about 3.8 percent behind last year’s pace as shipments continue to close the gap.

Southeast Asia also rebounded after a quieter start to the year. Shipments to the region totaled 9.67 million pounds compared with 5.148 million pounds last February, an increase of roughly 87.9 percent. Vietnam led the region with 6.086 million pounds shipped as buyers returned to the market.

Western Europe also recorded a strong month, shipping 69.65 million pounds compared with 57.215 million pounds in February 2025, an increase of approximately 21.7 percent. Increased availability of Standard 5 percent product helped stimulate buying activity across the region.

Spain shipped 20.28 million pounds, up 32.5 percent year over year, while Italy shipped 11.4 million pounds, a 50 percent increase. Germany also improved, shipping 12.5 million pounds compared with 10.2 million pounds last February, an increase of about 22.5 percent.

The Middle East recorded shipments of 28 million pounds compared with 24.5 million pounds in February 2025, a gain of 14.3 percent. However, the region is beginning to experience logistical disruptions tied to the conflict involving Iran. Shipments bound for the United Arab Emirates are facing the greatest challenges, with some cargo being rerouted to alternate ports as shipping lanes adjust.

Most February shipments departed California before these disruptions intensified, meaning the March position report will likely provide the first clear indication of the conflict’s impact on almond trade flows.

Overall, the February analysis from Treehouse California Almonds indicates that demand remains active across key export markets. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, persistent hand-to-mouth buying patterns and ongoing selling pressure are expected to continue shaping near-term market conditions as the industry works to balance supply and demand through the remainder of the marketing year.