California Almond Outlook: New Report Predicts Prices Poised to Rise

California’s almond industry is entering a pivotal transition period marked by shifting acreage, changing yield patterns and the likelihood of gradually strengthening prices, according to a new five-year outlook from RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness. 

The report, authored by Roland Fumasi, head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness North America, offers a cautiously optimistic forecast for growers who have endured several years of weak returns, volatile weather and rising production costs.

In the report, Fumasi notes that almond prices have “drastically improved over the past 18 months” and appear positioned to continue rising over the next half-decade. But the recovery will not be smooth as yield rebounds, aging orchards and lower planting activity will all interact to shape supply, creating price pressure in the near term and price support later in the decade.

A key driver in the outlook is the expectation that statewide yields will rebound after several underperforming seasons. From 2022 to 2025, average yields slipped to roughly 1,900 pounds per acre—well below the long-term average of about 2,200 pounds per acre. The report attributes the recent yield weakness to poor weather, heavier pest pressure and growers reducing inputs during a period of depressed prices. 

With prices improving and grower optimism returning, Fumasi expects reinvestment in orchard management. With about two-thirds of acreage at full-bearing age, yields have strong potential to return to or exceed 2,000 pounds per acre over the next several crop years, assuming typical weather and water availability.

However, this recovery will not last indefinitely. Yields are forecast to peak around 2027 before gradually declining as many orchards planted between 2004 and 2006 reach the end of their economic lifespan. Almond orchards generally produce profitably for about 23 years, and a large wave of aging acreage is set to be removed late in the forecast period.

Acreage trends also point to a long-term tightening of supply. According to the report, California’s bearing almond acreage reached a record 1.4 million acres in 2025. But non-bearing acreage—the pipeline of young orchards coming into production—fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. Coupled with increased removals driven by economic pressure and water restrictions tied to the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, the state is expected to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 bearing acres by 2029.

As a result, statewide production potential is projected to peak in 2026 or 2027 at or below 3 billion pounds before beginning to decline. Even with better yields, the shrinking orchard base will place an upper limit on future output.

Demand trends remain mixed. Domestic shipments are tracking at their lowest level in 10 years, pressured by inflation, consumer uncertainty and growing competition from pistachios. Fumasi expects domestic demand to recover somewhat as interest rates ease and consumer confidence improves, though he does not foresee record-setting domestic shipments in the near term. Export shipments are performing better and are projected to rise modestly through 2028, potentially reaching a new record that year before leveling off as U.S. supplies tighten.

One of the most important variables in the outlook is carry-in inventory, meaning the volume of nuts left in storage at the start of each marketing year. The report describes carry-in as a major swing factor in pricing because small changes in inventory can significantly affect market sentiment. Therefore, it projects carry-in to rise over the next three years, potentially peaking around 700 million pounds in 2028, before beginning to decline in 2029. Higher inventories will help cap prices mid-decade, while shrinking supplies later on will help push them higher.

Grower prices, which rose 53% between 2022-23 and 2024-25, are expected to average about $2.50 per pound in 2025/26, representing the strongest since 2018-19. A temporary pullback is likely in 2026-27 and 2027-28 as shipments slow and production increases, but prices are projected to strengthen sharply beginning in 2028 as acreage declines and supply tightens. By 2029-30, Fumasi sees a meaningful possibility that average prices could exceed $3.50 per pound.

Overall, the outlook suggests a market that is stabilizing, recalibrating and gradually moving toward a more balanced and profitable future for California almond growers.