USDA Forecasts Larger Table Grape Crop as Apple and Pear Production Declines

U.S. produce departments could see a larger California table grape crop this season, while supplies of domestic apples and pears are expected to decline, according to the USDA’s latest Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook.

California table grape production is forecast at 1.15 million tons in 2026, a 10% increase from 1.05 million tons last year and 13% above the 2022-24 average.

If the crop follows last year’s utilization pattern, approximately 964,000 tons, or 84%, will move into the fresh market.

The increase marks the third consecutive year of rising California table grape production following the sharp reduction caused by Hurricane Hilary in 2023.

The season also got off to an unusually early start. USDA said warm temperatures accelerated development, putting California’s grape harvest roughly three weeks ahead of its normal schedule. Domestic fresh grape shipments through the second week of September were running 20% above the 2023-25 average.

That early start could also mean an early finish, however, with USDA expecting lower shipment volumes toward the end of the California season.

The outlook is considerably different for apples.

USDA forecasts U.S. apple production at 10.4 billion pounds, down 6% from 2025 and 1% below the previous five-year average. The projected crop would be the smallest since 2022.

Much of the decline stems from severe spring freeze damage in the Mid-Atlantic.

Pennsylvania production is expected to fall 58% to 210 million pounds, while Virginia’s crop is projected to decline 48% to 77 million pounds. If realized, Virginia would have its smallest apple crop in more than 50 years.

New York production is forecast down 10% to 1.35 billion pounds.

The picture is more stable in the West. Washington, by far the nation’s largest apple-producing state, is expected to harvest 7.4 billion pounds, down just 2% from last season and 6% above the previous five-year average.

Pear supplies will be tighter as well.

USDA forecasts U.S. pear production at 650,000 tons, down 15% from last year. If realized, it would be the third-smallest U.S. pear crop since 1972.

Oregon production is expected to fall 23% to 210,000 tons, while California’s crop is also projected down 23% to 120,000 tons. Washington, which accounts for nearly half of U.S. pear production, is forecast at 320,000 tons, down 4%.

The mixed outlook comes as consumers are already paying more for fresh fruit. USDA reported the Fresh Fruit Consumer Price Index was 4% higher in August than a year earlier.

For retailers, the latest forecasts point to a fall produce environment with ample California table grapes but potentially tighter supplies in several important apple and pear growing regions.

USDA released the report Sept. 24. Its forecasts support the table grape, apple and pear production figures, regional changes and early California grape-season data used above.