California Almond Bearing Acreage Sees First Decline in Three Decades
California’s almond industry is entering a new phase of adjustment, as bearing acreage declined in 2026 for the first time in more than 30 years, according to the latest data from Land IQ.
The firm’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate puts bearing almond acreage at 1,385,870 acres, down from 1,401,097 acres in 2025—a decrease of 15,227 acres. The drop marks the first year-over-year decline in bearing acreage since 1995, signaling a notable shift for an industry that has experienced decades of near-continuous expansion.
The report focuses specifically on bearing acreage, meaning orchards planted before 2024 that have matured enough to produce a commercial crop for the upcoming 2026 harvest. Total acreage, including younger, non-bearing orchards, will be detailed in Land IQ’s final report scheduled for release in November.
A key driver behind the decline is a continued wave of orchard removals. Land IQ estimates that 47,588 acres were removed over the past year, adding to nearly 49,197 acres taken out during the 2024–25 crop year. The combined impact of removals and slower new plantings has begun to outweigh the additions of new orchards coming into production.
This trend follows broader contraction in the state’s almond footprint. In 2025, Land IQ reported that total almond acreage had fallen for four consecutive years, dropping to 1.52 million acres.
The new bearing acreage figures suggest that the effects of that pullback are now being reflected in productive orchards.
Still, industry leaders emphasize that the current shift should be viewed as a period of recalibration rather than decline.
“While we’re seeing stabilization in bearing acreage, global demand remains strong and is the foundation of our industry,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “Continued, strategic investment in market development is essential to supporting long-term growth and to position California almonds for the future.”
The Land IQ estimate offers an early snapshot of the industry heading into the 2026 harvest but does not include a forecast for total production. That figure will come from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), which is scheduled to release its Subjective Estimate on May 12.
The way almond production is measured is also evolving. As of December 2025, the Almond Board of California voted to cease funding for the July NASS Objective Measurement Report, a long-standing data point for the industry. The move signals a shift in how stakeholders will assess crop size and market conditions going forward.
Land IQ’s November 2026 report will provide a more comprehensive view, including total acreage, bearing and non-bearing acres, and potentially abandoned orchards and removals tracked from Sept. 1, 2025, through Aug. 31, 2026. Because the almond crop year runs from Aug. 1 to July 31, that report will effectively cover the full 2026–27 crop cycle.
Commissioned by the Almond Board of California, Land IQ has been mapping almond orchards across the state since 2018, with its first report issued in 2019. The effort draws on more than a decade of research to provide a detailed, evolving picture of the industry.
For growers and marketers, the latest numbers underscore a changing landscape. After years of rapid expansion, California almonds are entering a more measured phase—one shaped by economic pressures, orchard turnover and a renewed focus on aligning supply with global demand.
