USDA Forecasts 23% Drop in Florida Orange Crop

Florida’s orange crop is expected to decline sharply in the 2026-27 season, while citrus production in California and other major growing states is forecast to increase, according to the first USDA citrus forecast of the season.

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is forecasting Florida orange production at 10 million boxes, down 23% from the 12.95 million boxes produced last season.

The forecast includes 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges, a 14% decrease, and 3 million boxes of non-Valencia varieties, down 37%.

Other Florida citrus categories are also expected to finish below last season’s levels. Grapefruit production is forecast at 1.3 million boxes, down 4%, while tangerines and mandarins are projected at 450,000 boxes, a 2% decline.

Lemons are the exception. Florida lemon production is forecast at 950,000 boxes, up 6% from 900,000 last season.

Despite the lower outlook, Florida citrus industry leaders pointed to signs of improvement in the groves.

“The devastating freezes last winter were a speed bump on our road to recovery,” said Matt Joyner, executive vice president and CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual. “But there are many signs that point to strong performance in the years ahead.”

Joyner said growers are reporting healthier trees and improved fruit quality, while production per acre is increasing. Newly planted acreage also is expected to contribute more fruit as trees mature.

The Florida forecast contrasts sharply with expectations in California.

California orange production is projected at 50.5 million boxes, up from 49.5 million last season. The state’s grapefruit crop is forecast to increase from 4.4 million to 4.8 million boxes, while tangerines and mandarins are expected to rise from 31 million to 32 million boxes.

California lemon production is forecast at 28 million boxes, up from 26 million.

Texas citrus is also expected to increase, with orange production forecast at 1.2 million boxes compared with 1.09 million last season. Grapefruit production is projected at 2.4 million boxes, up from 2.1 million.

Arizona lemon production is forecast at 850,000 boxes, compared with 720,000 last season.

“The faith of a farmer is nothing to mess around with,” said Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus. “In partnership with our best-in-class research community, Florida citrus remains a significant economic driver in the state of Florida and well-positioned for future investment.”

For produce buyers and retailers, the forecast points to distinctly different regional supply pictures heading into the new citrus season, with declining Florida production occurring alongside larger crops expected in the West.

USDA’s next citrus crop forecast is scheduled for Jan. 12.